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Small Business Debt Relief Extension Act
Do you have federal student loans? Have you worked in public service (for a government agency, military or non-profit organization)? If so, find out if you are eligible for the Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) limited exemption which expires on October 31, 2022. Thousands of federal student loan borrowers have used a waiver to approach full debt forgiveness.
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For a limited time, the waiver gives you credit for repayment periods that weren’t previously counted – when you didn’t make a payment, didn’t arrive on time, didn’t pay the full amount, or were not on plan of suitable depreciation.
With the average borrower getting a year of credit with a waiver, now is the time to find out if a PSLF waiver might work for you. Before October 31, 2022:
Always contact Federal Student Aid or your lender for loan repayment questions. And if a company says it can help you sign up for PSLF or any student loan amnesty program for an upfront fee, it’s a scam! Report it to the FTC at ReportFraud.ftc.gov.
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▪ The outlook for demand from our trading partners deteriorated again in the summer. Conversely, the drop in oil prices in particular should support French economic growth.
▪ Strong increases in household purchasing power are expected to be confirmed in 2019 (2.3% per capita average) and 2020. Although household consumption growth has lagged, it has already begun to accelerate in the wake of these. earnings and should consolidate in the coming quarters.
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▪ Employment growth was surprisingly dynamic at the start of the year and is expected to remain robust in 2019. Thereafter, the French economy should continue to create new jobs, but at a more modest pace as productivity improves. The unemployment rate of France as a whole (including overseas territories) is expected to continue to decline and is expected to reach 7.9% by the end of 2021.
▪ French headline inflation (HICP) is expected to continue to decline to an annual average of 1.1% in 2020, in line with falling fuel prices. It is then expected to rebound to 1.3% in 2021. Inflation excluding energy and food is expected to remain weak at 0.6% in 2019, but gradually rise to 1.3% in 2021 in line with unemployment and the increase in wages.
▪ These growth and inflation projections are subject to significant and negative external risks, particularly given the uncertainties over the timing and terms of Brexit.
French economic growth has stabilized at a fairly steady pace, ranging from 1.2% to 1.4% year-on-year since mid-2018 (see Figure 1). France has shown greater resilience than other euro area economies, notably Germany, where year-on-year growth stood at 0.4% in mid-2019. This growth rate is expected to continue in the coming quarters (see Figure 1): based on the BanquedeFrance business surveys published on 9 September, GDP growth of 0.3% on a quarterly basis is expected in the third quarter of 2019.
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French GDP is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2019, after 1.7% in 2018. This slowdown largely reflects a slowdown in exports (see Chart 2), but domestic demand is expected to pick up. in particular of household consumption. A normalization of imports after a particularly sluggish 2018 will contribute to a decline in the net contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth.
In 2020, foreign demand and hence exports are expected to remain subdued while domestic demand will gain momentum, mainly due to the continued acceleration of household spending as households gradually adjust their consumption to reflect higher purchasing power gains from end of 2018. In 2021, the economic prospects of our trading partners should improve and exports should strengthen, thus stimulating economic growth in France.
While the rounded figure for GDP growth forecast for 2019 is unchanged from the figure given in our June announcement at 1.3%, the projection is up from the slightly higher-than-expected carry-over at the end of Q2 2019 . However, the projection has been slightly revised by 0.1 percentage points for 2020. Although exports are penalized by a more negative economic outlook for our trading partners than in June, several factors cushion this trend: a sharp rate cut. in the long term it strengthens the prospects for summer investments; A fall in the price of oil increases the purchasing power of households; And fiscal policy will be slightly more favorable to household incomes in 2020 and 2021.
Indeed, our projection now includes tax measures announced or confirmed in recent weeks (income tax cuts in 2020, unemployment benefit reform, public sector wage freezes in 2020 and extension of housing tax relief to all families from 2021). These measures, in part canceling each other out, are further positive with a limited net impact on household purchasing power for 2020 and 2021, compared to the June projections.
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These September projections are based on the quarterly national accounts published by INSEE on 29 August, which cover the period up to the second quarter of 2019. They also take into account the technical and international environment assumptions used in the Eurosystem’s September projection exercise. , for which the cut-off date is 19 August (see table A2 in the appendix).
Per capita purchasing power is expected to accelerate dramatically in 2019, estimated at 2.3% per annum, the highest growth rate since 2007. The per capita GDP growth rate is expected to remain at 1.4% in 2020 in line with 2021 (1.1%). Of course, these purchasing power growth figures are averages for the entire population and individual situations differ according to the household class.
Various factors should contribute to this improvement in the purchasing power of household income (see Figure 3), which has been slightly revised compared to the June projections (see Table A1 in the appendix).
First, oil prices have fallen sharply since mid-2018. The price of a barrel of Brent is expected to fall more sharply than expected in our June projections in the third quarter of 2019, down by EUR 11 year-on-year to 54. EUR. This projection is based on the assumption that the price will continue to fall before reaching around EUR 50 in 2021, derived from forward prices.
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Second, the sequence of fiscal stimuli has an important effect. As noted in our June projections, the measures already voted on and implemented – reductions in employee social security contributions, reductions in the tourist tax, increases in activity bonuses, tax exemptions on overtime, etc. – will mainly cover 2019. These September projections include recently announced measures for 2020 (income tax cuts) and 2021 (further cuts in housing taxes), which are partially offset by the announced savings due to the housing benefit reform. unemployment and the expansion of the public sector. Wages will freeze in 2020.
Finally, improvements in household purchasing power should continue to benefit from the strength of labor market incomes. Despite a slowdown in the economic growth rate since early 2018, employment growth proved resilient towards the end of 2018 and surprisingly accelerated in early 2019. This lag between employment and economic growth is common.